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Value after restoration in Indonesia

Restoring the abandoned mining land that is still bare or water could bring a net gain of Rp 2.61 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.38–3.88 tngrade D on the MapBiomas mining-class measure. This page shows where that gain lies, who would benefit and how sure we are.

Restoring the abandoned mining land that is still bare or water could bring a net gain of Rp 724 bnP10–P90 Rp 230 bn – Rp 1.25 tngrade D on the footprint measure.

Model estimate, not an appraisal.

Model restorevalue.v1, run of 20 October 2026.

Recovery status after mining ›

The restoration opportunity in rupiah

Both measures side by side. They overlap and are never added together.

MapBiomas mining-class measure

Every 30 m pixel that MapBiomas ever labelled as a mining pit and that is now abandoned and still bare or water.

Net gain
Rp 2.61 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.38–3.88 tngrade D
Net present value over 25 years at 10 % a year.
Land counted
36,760 ha · abandoned, still bare or water
Payback
2 yrs
Gain per rupiah of cost
0.88×
Footprint measure

Land inside the mapped mining footprint polygons that is abandoned and still bare or water.

Net gain
Rp 724 bnP10–P90 Rp 230 bn – Rp 1.25 tngrade D
Net present value over 25 years at 10 % a year.
Land counted
16,097 ha · abandoned, still bare or water
Payback
2 yrs
Gain per rupiah of cost
0.65×

Model estimate, not an appraisal. tn = trillion, bn = billion, m = million (rupiah). The letter after a figure is its grade (A best, D a rough model estimate); the range is P10–P90.

By permit zone

Where the land lies against the ESDM permit layer. Inside an expired or revoked permit, the former permit holder still has a reclamation duty.

Permit zoneMapBiomas mining-class measureFootprint measure
LandNet gainLandNet gain
Inside an expired or revoked permit: reclamation duty applies85 haRp 6.17 bnP10–P90 Rp 3.27–9.11 bngrade D50 haRp 4.26 bnP10–P90 Rp 2.39–6.23 bngrade D
Inside an active permit13,607 haRp 799 bnP10–P90 Rp 348 bn – Rp 1.27 tngrade D10,364 haRp 453 bnP10–P90 Rp 99.6–809 bngrade D
Inside a permit with another statusPending, suspended or unknown status.3,020 haRp 112 bnP10–P90 −Rp 42.4 bn – Rp 259 bngrade D177 haRp 9.37 bnP10–P90 Rp 3.57–15.7 bngrade D
Outside known permit boundaries (ESDM)This can be a gap in the ESDM permit layer or an older permit: the layer lists current permits only.20,048 haRp 1.69 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.01–2.41 tngrade D5,505 haRp 263 bnP10–P90 Rp 116–417 bngrade D
Indonesia36,760 haRp 2.61 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.38–3.88 tngrade D16,097 haRp 724 bnP10–P90 Rp 230 bn – Rp 1.25 tngrade D

“Outside known permit boundaries (ESDM)” can be a gap in the permit layer or an older permit. It says nothing about who is responsible.

Bangka Belitung, Kalimantan and Sulawesi

RegionMapBiomas mining-class measureFootprint measure
LandNet gainLandNet gain
Bangka Belitung4,223 haRp 204 bnP10–P90 Rp 88.2–336 bngrade D825 haRp 39.5 bnP10–P90 Rp 16.4–65.1 bngrade D
Kalimantan20,993 haRp 1.46 tnP10–P90 Rp 751 bn – Rp 2.2 tngrade D14,323 haRp 648 bnP10–P90 Rp 198 bn – Rp 1.11 tngrade D
Sulawesi1,073 haRp 46.8 bnP10–P90 Rp 7.19–86.6 bngrade D110 ha−Rp 381 mP10–P90 −Rp 16.2 bn – Rp 3.39 bngrade D

Provinces with the largest net gain

ProvinceMapBiomas mining-class measureFootprint measure
LandNet gainLandNet gain
Kalimantan Tengah8,504 haRp 744 bnP10–P90 Rp 397 bn – Rp 1.13 tngrade D3,399 haRp 179 bnP10–P90 Rp 73.6–300 bngrade D
Kepulauan Riau4,788 haRp 584 bnP10–P90 Rp 377–766 bngrade D––
Kalimantan Timur7,052 haRp 541 bnP10–P90 Rp 216–830 bngrade D7,123 haRp 421 bnP10–P90 Rp 129–697 bngrade D
Kepulauan Bangka Belitung4,223 haRp 204 bnP10–P90 Rp 88.2–336 bngrade D825 haRp 39.5 bnP10–P90 Rp 16.4–65.1 bngrade D
Maluku1,101 haRp 117 bnP10–P90 Rp 50.9–176 bngrade D9.9 haRp 160 mP10–P90 −Rp 700 m – Rp 1.06 bngrade D
Kalimantan Selatan3,145 haRp 99 bnP10–P90 −Rp 262 bn – Rp 204 bngrade D3,278 haRp 91.6 bnP10–P90 −Rp 289 bn – Rp 197 bngrade D
Riau877 haRp 97.9 bnP10–P90 Rp 68.7–130 bngrade D126 haRp 5.87 bnP10–P90 Rp 2.19–9.96 bngrade D
Kalimantan Barat1,754 haRp 92.4 bnP10–P90 Rp 22.4–162 bngrade D108 haRp 437 mP10–P90 −Rp 11.6 bn – Rp 3.91 bngrade D
Sulawesi Tengah735 haRp 50.4 bnP10–P90 Rp 22.3–79.3 bngrade D3.4 haRp 357 mP10–P90 Rp 183–531 mgrade D
Kalimantan Utara538 haRp 45.5 bnP10–P90 Rp 23.8–72.5 bngrade D416 haRp 23.7 bnP10–P90 Rp 9.84–44.4 bngrade D
Nusa Tenggara Timur171 haRp 22.6 bnP10–P90 Rp 16.7–29.9 bngrade D0.6 haRp 81.8 mP10–P90 Rp 43.8–118 mgrade D
Maluku Utara119 haRp 18.6 bnP10–P90 Rp 13.6–24.1 bngrade D66 haRp 9.44 bnP10–P90 Rp 6.6–12.5 bngrade D

Top 15 kabupaten

Measure

By net gain

KabupatenLandNet gain
1. Kabupaten Kotawaringin TimurKalimantan Tengah · iron ore3,189 haRp 376 bnP10–P90 Rp 229–548 bngrade D
2. Kabupaten KatinganKalimantan Tengah · coal2,328 haRp 230 bnP10–P90 Rp 145–331 bngrade D
3. Kota BatamKepulauan Riau · quarry1,416 haRp 230 bnP10–P90 Rp 172–293 bngrade D
4. Kabupaten BintanKepulauan Riau · tin1,868 haRp 191 bnP10–P90 Rp 112–257 bngrade D
5. Kabupaten Kutai KartanegaraKalimantan Timur · coal2,394 haRp 179 bnP10–P90 Rp 74.3–277 bngrade D
6. Kabupaten Kutai TimurKalimantan Timur · coal2,336 haRp 150 bnP10–P90 Rp 51.1–255 bngrade D
7. Kabupaten KetapangKalimantan Barat · bauxite951 haRp 111 bnP10–P90 Rp 71.7–163 bngrade D
8. Kabupaten BerauKalimantan Timur · coal1,046 haRp 93.2 bnP10–P90 Rp 44–140 bngrade D
9. Kota Tanjung PinangKepulauan Riau · commodity unknown586 haRp 72.5 bnP10–P90 Rp 38.5–105 bngrade D
10. Kabupaten BangkaKepulauan Bangka Belitung · tin1,046 haRp 62.9 bnP10–P90 Rp 29.2–96.2 bngrade D
11. Kabupaten Belitung TimurKepulauan Bangka Belitung · tin826 haRp 61.5 bnP10–P90 Rp 32.5–88.2 bngrade D
12. Kabupaten Kutai BaratKalimantan Timur · coal693 haRp 48.8 bnP10–P90 Rp 19.6–79.9 bngrade D
13. Kabupaten Seram Bagian TimurMaluku · commodity unknown364 haRp 46.6 bnP10–P90 Rp 24.2–68.5 bngrade D
14. Kabupaten Maluku TengahMaluku · quarry303 haRp 46.5 bnP10–P90 Rp 35.4–60.9 bngrade D
15. Kabupaten Tanah BumbuKalimantan Selatan · coal1,067 haRp 41.1 bnP10–P90 Rp 5–71 bngrade D

By gain per rupiah of cost

Net gain (P50) divided by the restoration cost (P50). Only kabupaten with at least 25 ha of land counted.

KabupatenLandGain per rupiahNet gain
1. Kabupaten NatunaKepulauan Riau · quarry185 ha3.53×Rp 31.9 bnP10–P90 Rp 23.7–40.4 bngrade D
2. Kabupaten SeruyanKalimantan Tengah · quarry190 ha3.4×Rp 31.4 bnP10–P90 Rp 22.7–42.2 bngrade D
3. Kota BatamKepulauan Riau · quarry1,416 ha3.29×Rp 230 bnP10–P90 Rp 172–293 bngrade D
4. Kabupaten Timor Tengah SelatanNusa Tenggara Timur · quarry58 ha3.24×Rp 9.12 bnP10–P90 Rp 6.89–12.1 bngrade D
5. Kabupaten KaroSumatera Utara · quarry31 ha3.22×Rp 4.82 bnP10–P90 Rp 3.66–6.28 bngrade D
6. Kota PalangkarayaKalimantan Tengah · quarry86 ha3.16×Rp 13.3 bnP10–P90 Rp 9.58–17.9 bngrade D
7. Kabupaten Maluku TengahMaluku · quarry303 ha3.13×Rp 46.5 bnP10–P90 Rp 35.4–60.9 bngrade D
8. Kabupaten BengkalisRiau · quarry172 ha3.03×Rp 25.8 bnP10–P90 Rp 19.7–33.7 bngrade D
9. Kabupaten GowaSulawesi Selatan · quarry43 ha2.82×Rp 6.06 bnP10–P90 Rp 4.57–7.98 bngrade D
10. Kabupaten SiakRiau · quarry119 ha2.78×Rp 16.5 bnP10–P90 Rp 12.3–21.9 bngrade D
11. Kabupaten Halmahera TimurMaluku Utara · nickel45 ha2.56×Rp 10.4 bnP10–P90 Rp 8.4–12.5 bngrade D
12. Kabupaten PosoSulawesi Tengah · quarry33 ha2.45×Rp 4.08 bnP10–P90 Rp 3.04–5.45 bngrade D
13. Kabupaten Teluk BintuniPapua Barat · coal51 ha2.28×Rp 7.77 bnP10–P90 Rp 4.55–12.5 bngrade D
14. Kabupaten PaserKalimantan Timur · coal183 ha2.08×Rp 25.2 bnP10–P90 Rp 13–35.3 bngrade D
15. Kota BontangKalimantan Timur · commodity unknown26 ha1.84×Rp 3.99 bnP10–P90 Rp 2.04–5.67 bngrade D

Who benefits

MapBiomas mining-class measure

Who benefits

How the benefits are shared, before costs (median path). Benefit-sharing defaults from the Restoration Studio: 80 % cooperative, 20 % village fund.

  • LandownerThe gain in land value.Rp 1.88 tngrade D34 %
  • CooperativePlan income above the land value and the community share of carbon (80 % stays in the cooperative).Rp 623 bngrade D11 %
  • Village fund20 % of the community share goes to the village fund.Rp 156 bngrade D3 %
  • Government and the publicEcosystem services and avoided downstream impacts.Rp 2.76 tngrade D50 %
  • Project developerThe rest of the carbon value.Rp 66.8 bngrade D1 %

Footprint measure

Who benefits

How the benefits are shared, before costs (median path). Benefit-sharing defaults from the Restoration Studio: 80 % cooperative, 20 % village fund.

  • LandownerThe gain in land value.Rp 839 bngrade D42 %
  • CooperativePlan income above the land value and the community share of carbon (80 % stays in the cooperative).Rp 147 bngrade D7 %
  • Village fund20 % of the community share goes to the village fund.Rp 36.8 bngrade D2 %
  • Government and the publicEcosystem services and avoided downstream impacts.Rp 959 bngrade D48 %
  • Project developerThe rest of the carbon value.Rp 16 bngrade D1 %

Every part of the balance, with source and grade

National totals. Parts marked “model value” are modelled, not measured.

Measure

From value now to net gain

Value now → value after restoration, plus what restoration adds for everyone, minus the costs, gives the net gain.

  • Value now (degraded land)model value−Rp 4.02 tnP10–P90 −Rp 8.09 tn – Rp 4.62 tngrade D
  • Value after restorationmodel valueRp 3.73 tnP10–P90 Rp 2.17–8.72 tngrade D

The value now is negative: the land is worth less than nothing until it is reclaimed. That is shown but not counted as gain; the restoration costs are counted instead.

  • Gain in land valuemodel valueRp 2.61 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.78–3.27 tngrade D
  • Ecosystem servicesmodel valueRp 2.18 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.46–3.09 tngrade D
  • CarbonRp 153 bnP10–P90 Rp 77.1–266 bngrade D
  • Avoided downstream impactsmodel valueRp 598 bnP10–P90 Rp 321 bn – Rp 1.02 tngrade D
  • Restoration costsRp 2.97 tnP10–P90 Rp 2.55–3.46 tngrade D
  • RemediationRp 1.86 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.58–2.18 tngrade D
  • PlantingRp 883 bnP10–P90 Rp 733 bn – Rp 1.07 tngrade D
  • Net gainmodel valueRp 2.61 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.38–3.88 tngrade D

Shown, not added

  • Plan income (capitalised)model valueRp 2.32 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.58–3.44 tngrade D
  • Reclamation duty dischargedRp 7.43 tnP10–P90 Rp 4.78–10.8 tngrade D

Source and grade of every part

PartValue (P50)Source
Value now (degraded land)model valueToday's use value of the degraded land: comparable land value minus the cost of reclamation. It can be negative. A negative value is shown but not counted as gain, because the restoration costs are counted below.−Rp 4.02 tnP10–P90 −Rp 8.09 tn – Rp 4.62 tngrade DEco Mining Data land value: degraded mining land = comparable value − reclamation cost (model value, not floored at zero)
Value after restorationmodel valueThe larger of the comparable land value and the capitalised plan income, never both.Rp 3.73 tnP10–P90 Rp 2.17–8.72 tngrade DThe larger of (b) the comparable land value (agriculture/plantation; pit lakes × water factor) and (a) the capitalised plan income
Plan income (capitalised)model valueIncome of a default restoration plan (forest, agroforestry, cassava fields, fish cages in pit lakes) over 25 years, discounted. Used in the value after restoration only when it is the larger of the two.Rp 2.32 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.58–3.44 tngrade DRestoration Studio option economics (Sulawesi Utara price table applied nationally), default plan mix per commodity; present value of operating income over the plan period
Gain in land valuemodel valueValue after restoration minus today's use value (a negative value now counts as zero).Rp 2.61 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.78–3.27 tngrade D(value after − today's use value, a negative value counted as 0), realised in year 2 and discounted
Ecosystem servicesmodel valueNon-market value of the restored land, such as water regulation and habitat (benefit transfer from de Groot et al. 2012).Rp 2.18 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.46–3.09 tngrade Dde Groot, R. et al. 2012. Global estimates of the value of ecosystems and their services in monetary units. Ecosystem Services 1: 50-61 (biome means). Benefits transferred at 0.25-1× the mean (most likely 0.5). Cultivated land: no extra non-market value counted.
CarbonCarbon credits from replanting, after buffer, leakage and uncertainty deductions, at a placeholder price.Rp 153 bnP10–P90 Rp 77.1–266 bngrade DRestoration Studio carbon profiles × (1 − buffer − leakage − uncertainty) × carbon price, minus measurement and issuance costs
Avoided downstream impactsmodel valueAvoided sediment, flooding and water-treatment costs downstream. A model value, not a measurement.Rp 598 bnP10–P90 Rp 321 bn – Rp 1.02 tngrade DMODEL value: avoided sediment, flooding and water-treatment costs downstream of restored mining land, Rp/ha/yr. No Indonesian per-hectare study found; ESMI assumption, to be replaced by causal estimates.
RemediationRegrading, soil and water testing, labour, and POCO compost with microbes where metals are expected.Rp 1.86 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.58–2.18 tngrade DRestoration Studio remediation costs: regrading, XRF and lab sampling, labour, POCO + microbes on the share of land with metals
PlantingSeedlings, compost and planting for the plan mix.Rp 883 bnP10–P90 Rp 733 bn – Rp 1.07 tngrade DRestoration Studio option costs (planting, seedlings, compost) of the plan mix
Restoration costsRemediation and planting, plus a contingency.Rp 2.97 tnP10–P90 Rp 2.55–3.46 tngrade DRemediation + planting + contingency
Reclamation duty dischargedThe reclamation duty that restoration would discharge. It is a transfer between parties (who pays): shown, not added to the gain.Rp 7.43 tnP10–P90 Rp 4.78–10.8 tngrade DReclamation standard (Kepmen ESDM 344.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2025, IKK-adjusted): the duty restoration discharges. A TRANSFER (who pays), not added to the gain
Net gainmodel valueGain in land value + ecosystem services + carbon + avoided downstream impacts − restoration costs.Rp 2.61 tnP10–P90 Rp 1.38–3.88 tngrade DNet gain = (value after − today's use value) + ecosystem services + carbon + avoided downstream impacts − costs; present value, model estimate, not an appraisal

What this is and what it is not

  • A model estimate per kabupaten, with a P10–P90 range from Monte Carlo draws. Not an appraisal, not a valuation of any plot, and not an offer.
  • Land values come from the Eco Mining Data land-value model (grade D or C): comparable land prices per kabupaten, with fallbacks to the province or region where local data are missing.
  • Plan income uses the price table of the Restoration Studio for Sulawesi Utara, applied to the whole country.
  • Ecosystem services use benefit transfer from global biome means (de Groot et al. 2012), scaled down; they are not measured on site.
  • The carbon price is a placeholder within the current voluntary-market range; no credits exist for this land.
  • Avoided downstream impacts are a model value. No Indonesian per-hectare study was found; it will be replaced by measured estimates.
  • There are no site plans: every kabupaten gets a default plan mix by commodity (more forest on steep nickel and gold land, more agroforestry and cassava fields on flat tin and quarry land, wetland and some fish cages on pit lakes).
  • The gain is measured from today's use value. A negative value now (the reclamation liability) is shown but not counted as gain, because the restoration costs are counted.
  • The reclamation duty discharged is a transfer between parties: shown, never added to the gain.
  • Footprint measure: mapped mining polygons. MapBiomas mining-class measure: every pixel ever labelled mining pit. They overlap and are never summed.
  • “Outside known permit boundaries (ESDM)” can be a gap in the permit layer or an older permit. It says nothing about who is responsible.

Project 2050: this page is data only. It is not a business plan or an investment proposal.

Sources

Model restorevalue.v1 (Eco Mining Data), inputs: recovery status after mining (MapBiomas Indonesia, mining footprints), land value per kabupaten, Restoration Studio price and cost tables, de Groot et al. 2012, Verra VM0047. Licence CC BY-SA 4.0.

Recovery status after mining ›